End Game
If you don’t have time to read through everything, here is a guide that might help you to make the best use of your time:
(1) Words at an Exhibition (yes, a take off of Mussorgsky)
(2) My final electoral map
(3) Three things that’ll surprise you on Election Day
(4) Three things that are now obvious in retrospect
(5) Your guide to Election Day
(1) Words at an Exhibition
For the past 16 months, the presidential election has taken over my life.
It has made me a better person because I am now more informed about politics and the government more than ever before. It has made me a better person because I found something new to be passionate about.
It has made me a happier person because I keep quiet about politics when I’m around people I don’t know (you know, to keep things politically correct), but when someone asks my opinion, and I begin to talk, people listen. That’s because I have paid more attention to this election cycle than 99% of the people I know (the 1% of people who are more addicted than I am are probably reading this…you know who you are).
Whether people ask for an opinion on McCain, Obama, news coverage, senate/house races, etc., I keep my answers focused and objective (fair and balanced? :-/), and I happen to make others who don’t give two craps about the election at least turn their heads towards me and listen for a few seconds.
It has also made me a worse person because I have become addicted. I have been addicted to sports and specifically, the NFL, since I was 3, but since I know a new season will come, Patriots championships will come and go (or just keep coming :-)), I understand that tomorrow is a new day. But with November 4, 2008 being an end date, and nothing like this ever happening again (sure, there will be other elections, both more and less interesting, but each election is unique), I have been drawn into the vortex of the big day, and my attention towards the coverage of the race has steadily increased.
Never again should this bad of an addiction happen to me or anyone else.
(2) My final map
I’ve told people different things in regard to what I think will happen, but if I were a gambling man (which I’m not anymore), here’s the map I would go with:
FYI, lighter colors indicate a margin inside of ten points and bolder colors represent a margin outside of ten points.
A few states of note:
PA: I wrestled a lot with Pennsylvania. I think McCain and Palin are campaigning enough here in the final days to generate the enthusiasm that’ll save them from being rocked…but look for an Obama victory (~6%) in PA regardless (PA is McCain’s only (longshot) hope for winning a 2004 John Kerry state)…plus, western PA is racist; right, Congressman Murtha?
NC: A straight-Democratic ballot is complicated to fill out in NC (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/diane-tucker/confusing-north-carolina_b_138073.html?page=7), which I think will work against Obama. 2.54% of people who voted did not vote for President in 2004; a bad sign considering that statistically speaking, only 1% of ballots remain blank in terms of the presidency. This is not good for Obama who hopes for a huge turnout. This is why I gave NC to McCain.
NV/NM/CO: Hispanic-vote/Hispanic-vote/A younger electorate. ‘Nuff said.
OH/FL: Ohio has surprised me. I did not think that rural Ohio would buy into Obama (after seeing some of those crazy Youtube videos of Palin supporters), but the economy has hurt McCain badly…very badly…
And for Florida, Obama is not pulling away there. It’s within the margin of error and I see McCain benefiting from the largely older electorate going with the ’safe’ choice of McCain as opposed to the ‘untested’ Obama. Only Obama living in Florida until 11/4 will get him Florida’s 27 electoral votes.
[If Todd gets me his map, I'll put it up so we can do some, "Man, my map was so much more accurate than yours" one-upmanship. If you go here, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=1 (in case the link is cut off, the last part of it ends with ?map=1), create your own map, and send it over (shardule@gmail.com). I'll post it.]
(3) Three surprises
A. This ballgame might be over at 8:00-8:30 PM. Florida’s polls close at 7:00 PM EST. Exit poll data will start pouring in from all over the state, but of course, final exit poll numbers will not be known until the large cities finish their voting. That should take about an hour to ninety minutes after poll closing (so, 8:00-8:30 PM). If Florida (which I predict that McCain will win) goes to Obama, then it’s game, set, match. Evening over. Go to bed. Don’t even wait for the western state results to come in.
p.s. I know I’m predicting that McCain takes Florida, but I’m just saying, the above could happen.
B. Massive voter identification problems and machine issues will lead to a ridiculous amount of paper and/or provisional ballots (a provisional ballot is what you are allowed to fill out if the polling workers cannot let you in because of some identification issues, but it is not guaranteed that it will count), most of which will be tossed out. Though the recent swing of court rulings has tended towards less stringent requirements for voter identification, who knows what could happen if ‘Mickey Mouse’ actually bothered to showed up (a fake name registered by employees of ACORN, a community advocacy group)? In addition, voter machines…they broke down in 2004, broke down in 2006, broke down in the primaries…so…anyone want to guess what might happen on 11/4?
C. Obama’s popular vote margin will be relatively small (4 to 5%) and his electoral margin will be smaller than many pollsters’ maps (Obama +130-150) indicate right now. I still believe in the Bradley/Wilder effect. I do not believe that the opposing argument (rural whites saying they’re voting for McCain because it’s socially acceptable but actually vote for Obama because they’re concerned about their money) will balance out the ‘racist’ votes.
(4) Three obvious statements
A. Any Democrat (save Edwards and his affair) would have won against any Republican. Hillary, Biden (who’s not making too many headlines but doing very well for himself in terms of playing the Obama game), Richardson, etc. would have ruined McCain. America would not have bought into Romney. [Huckabee might have caused some trouble for the Democrats with his strong Christian base combined with moderate economic policies.]
B. Obama’s battle with Hillary did him a lot of good and I think earned him respect (grudgingly, I’m sure) amongst Hillary supporters.
C. Obama is a socialist Muslim…okay, just kidding…
C, for real. If McCain had stayed true to his moderate/independent values, he would have been in a better position because no true conservative would have stayed home at the risk of having a President Obama unleash a super-taxing-yay for gays-peace loving-terrorist driven-agenda. At the same time, he could have peeled off some of the moderate and/or independent voters (two very different groups who are often mistaken for each other but together constitute a large percentage of the electorate) from Obama.
(5) Three things to watch for
A. The Senate/House races. If the presidential race is called early during the evening, the news networks will focus on the congressional races. Will the Democrats get to 60 Senate seats and therefore defeat any filibuster possibilities by Republicans? Will Indian Ashwin Madia kick some ass up in Minnesota’s House of Representatives District #3 race? Will comedian Al Franken knock off Norm Coleman (I don’t think that this will happen) to win a US Senate seat? There are so many interesting races from all around the country (Hagan v. Dole (NC), McConnell v. Lunsford (KY)) that it’s hard to comment on all of them…
B. John (Burger) King (CNN Senior Political Analyst) and Chuck Todd’s (NBC Chief Political Correspondent) ridiculous, and I mean, ridiculous, LCD-plasma screen-wtf-how is this possible technology in terms of relaying to viewers the different electoral/popular vote maps. Seriously, watching CNN or MSNBC (I’m sure they have this on FOX but since I don’t watch FOX that often, I can’t draw a similar comparison) makes me wonder if the reporters/analysts are real people or just LCD fakes.
C. Ballot questions in state races. I haven’t been paying too much attention to them, but I know there is a serious proposal to nix the income tax in Massachusetts, civil rights and animal rights initiatives in California, etc. These will have more of an effect on your life than the presidential election, so take note (and vote appropriately) of which ballot measures are in your area.
If anyone has comments, please write them below and I’d be happy to start a dialogue about anything I’ve written or anything else on your mind…
Before I forget, thanks to all who made last weekend the most action-packed, awesome, weekend I could have had 
Shardule,
You are so politically sexy…I mean saavy.
Love,
Your roommate
Well written. I look forward to comparing your map against what actually happens. Ok, now stop politic-ing and start doing your schoolwork. I am your sister so you have to listen.
particularly good at. Great news, nonetheless.
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very good, look forward to view your other articles
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